The “New Manager Bounce” Should Not be Dismissed by Football Punters

The “New Manager Bounce” is one of those footballing terms which is often banded around by pundits to describe an upturn in form following the appointment of a new head coach. Experts have been quick to debunk this theory, pointing out that several other factors such as winnable fixtures, players returning from injury, and luck all tend to play their part in helping improve a club’s fortunes. However, a change in the dugout can be good news for punters with many players tending to raise their game following the dismissal of an unpopular figurehead.

The new manager bounce?

It worked for some clubs, but not for others.

Some things you may have missed from the #EFL 👉 https://t.co/ZZdEPsr7mt pic.twitter.com/Sal8OlxQYi— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) January 19, 2019

Tightening Up 

The majority of new managers will aim to build from the back and will often focus on avoiding defeat in their opening couple of games. Incoming bosses may opt to keep things simple, with the phrase “getting back to basics” routinely wheeled out in pre-match press conferences. This usually plays out in the form of a goalless draw or a narrow defeat to superior opposition, and savvy punters can utilise a number of alternative betting markets here; with a goalless first half and under 2.5 goals usually the first port of call in these types of encounters.

Although it may take a couple of weeks to achieve the desired results, a scrappy 1-0 win will often follow, with decent odds available on the struggling outfit. Spotting a manager who is slowly turning the tide can be invaluable from a betting perspective and sifting through the fixture list to find a home tie against out-of-form opposition may provide the perfect opportunity for a small wager.

Nathan Jones returned to Luton in mid-June, and with the exception of the Hatter’s home collapse to Reading, the Welshman has helped the Bedfordshire side tighten up at the back. Although they still possess the division’s leakiest defence, the former midfielder has seen his side conceded just four times in as many games, a run that includes a notable clean sheet at the Liberty Stadium. With last season’s League One champions still rooted to the foot of the table, they have been priced up generously by the bookmakers, and those who have been brave enough to back them on the double chance market will have reaped the rewards in recent weeks.

📄 CLUB STATEMENT | The most successful manager in Luton Town’s Football League history returns to Kenilworth Road.

Welcome back, Nathan Jones!

👉https://t.co/i4Z7Yhtf3B#COYH pic.twitter.com/NY8UDpgDA0— @LutonTown (@LutonTown) May 28, 2020

Unlocking Attacking Potential 

Some owners will opt for a radical change of approach when it comes to managerial appointments often replacing a defensive-minded coach with a far more positive figure. This can often result in a plethora of high-scoring games which will make punters sit up and take notice.

Strikers who were side-lined under the old regime are often given a new lease of life, whilst a simple tweak to the system may just bring out the best in a previously barren frontman.

Deportivo La Coruna was enduring a disappointing second season in the Spanish Segunda before the appointment of Fernando Vasquez at the beginning of January. Having been expected to challenge for promotion this year, the Galicia-based club had failed to find the net in 42% of their fixtures by mid-December and was facing the prospect of yet another relegation.

Since the appointment of the 65-year-old, the club have found its shooting boots, netting 30 times in Vasquez’s first 18 games in charge, and suffering just two defeats in the process. Bettors who spotted this trend have continued to back the former La Liga club on a weekly basis and having netted at least twice in six of their last nine home games, they’ve been an extremely reliable prospect at Ciudad Deportivo de Riazor.

Not every manager will have an instant impact or New Manager Bounce, nor will their appointment necessarily result in an immediate upturn in fortunes, however, punters can undoubtedly benefit from keeping their eye on the progress of those clubs who’ve recently opted for a change at the top. Whether it’s a much-improved back-line or an unexpected glut of goals, the “New Manager Bounce” can play an important role for bettors and can often help them stay one step ahead of the game.